比特币减半周期 202612月做多比特币相关

熊底在减半前约500天（本轮推算2026年12月）。 bitcoin Grok: 是的，这个说法在加密货币社区（尤其是中文圈和一些分析帖）里确实存在，而且有一定历史数据支撑，但它属于一种常见的“周期派”经验总结，而不是严格的铁律。很多人用它来推演比特币的四年减半周期。 你贴的这篇内容核心观点总结如下： 比特币减半形成四年周期（牛熊交替）。 历史减半日期基本准确（2012.11、2016.7、2020.5、2024.4）。 声称“每次减半后到新高约需540天”（前三轮：540天、549天、562天，平均约550天左右）。 因此2024年4月减半后，新高点推算在2025年10月左右。 熊底在减半前约500天（本轮推算2026年12月）。 这个“540天到新高”的说法在社区里流传挺广： 一些Binance Square、TradingView、Reddit和X上的分析帖直接提到过类似数字（比如“减半后540天新高”“549天”“562天”）。 很多人把前三轮从减半日到周期顶点（ATH）的天数统计为540–562天区间，用来类比本轮。 部分中文分析师和KOL（比如币安广场的一些长帖）几乎一模一样地用这个“540天规律”预测2025年10月左右见顶。 但实际情况更 nuance（细微差别）： 历史天数确实接近，但不完全统一：不同数据源统计的“到新高”天数有小差异（有的算368–525–549天，有的从底部算起，有的严格从减半日算）。比如有些来源显示2012那轮更快（约368–540天不等，取决于怎么定义“新高”）。 熊底500天前的说法也常见，但更像社区经验法则（“减半前500天买”或“熊底在减半前1年多”），不是精确到月。 本轮已经部分验证又部分偏离：2024减半后到2025年10月确实出现了高点（很多分析认为2025年10月左右的126k左右可能是周期顶），但涨幅递减、机构/ETF影响让周期“变形”，不再是早期那种爆炸式涨幅。 现在（2026年2月）市场已明显转熊，很多机构/分析师认为熊市还在继续，底部可能在2026年某个时间（有说5–10月，有说年底，甚至2027年初），但没人能100%确定12月就是底。 总的来说： 这个“大饼减半后540天新高 + 减半前500天熊底”的框架是社区里很流行的简化模型，有历史数据的粗略支持，也被很多人拿来做推演（包括你看到的这篇）。但它更像“历史押韵”而非精确预测公式——每轮周期都会受宏观、机构、监管等新变量影响而变形。 如果你是参考它做投资决策，建议多看链上数据（MVRV、CVDD、200周均线等）、宏观环境（降息预期）和不同机构的观点组合判断，而不是只靠这个单一“540天”规律。周期还在，但“这一轮不同”的声音也越来越大。

A New Earth - Preface

1. Is a "new earth" arising, a world where the egoic state of consciousness in its insanely dysfunctional manifestations, both individual and collective, has dissolved or at least subsided, and where humans no longer create unnecessary suffering for themselves, one another, as well as other life forms on the planet? 2. subjugation The subjugation of one race by another, the domination of women throughout thousands of years of patriarchy, and the devaluing of people based on social class are for growing numbers of us nightmares of the past. 3. There is a growing awareness of the intrinsic oneness of everything that exists, so that more and more we are seeing an awareness of and deep concern for our fellow humans, the countless animals that are our traveling companions, and the planet itself. 4. affiliation This diminishment of the ego gives rise to empathy and compassion beyond tribal, racial, national, or religious affiliations. 5. succumb If you stay present and do not succumb to fear, if you do not believe the media when they tell you that you should be afraid, these things will not affect you deeply. 6. Acute Acute crisis and dysfunction always precede or coincide with any evolutionary advancement or gain in consciousness. 7. All life-forms need obstacles and challenges in order to evolve. 8. demise Eventually, the ego brings about its own demise. 9. Make sure the present moment is your friend, not your enemy. Honor it by giving it your fullest attention. Appreciate it by being thankful for it. Become internally aligned with it by allowing it to be as it is. That is the arising of the new earth.

C# 12 and .NET 8

1. The C# compiler (named Roslyn) used by the dotnet CLI tool converts your C# source code into intermediate language (IL) code and stores the IL in an assembly (a DLL or EXE file). IL code statements are like assembly language instructions, which are executed by .NET’s virtual machine, known as CoreCLR. At runtime, CoreCLR loads the IL code from the assembly, the just-in-time (JIT) compiler compiles it into native CPU instructions, and then it is executed by the CPU on your machine. 2. In the Create a new project dialog, select the C# language

The books read at 2026

The books read at 2026 1. Atomic Habits, Feb 7

Atomic Habits notes

Reading this book reminds me the power of now. Say for the author's introduction chapter, the incident seems very unlucky, but the important is not the life situation, but the response/react to the life situation. Also the author James Clear mentioned should focus on system instead of goal. a. Winners and losers have the same goals. b. Achieving a goal is only a momentary change. c. Goals restric your happiness. When you fall in love with the process rather than the product, you don't have to wait to give yourself permission to be happy. You can be satified anytime your system is running. And a system can be successful in many different forms not just the one you first envision. 1. I hope you'll forgive me if this sounds boastful. 2. Habits are mental shortcuts learned from experience. Theultimate purpose of habits is to solve the problems of life with as little energy and effort as possible. 3. How to create a good habit: The 1st law (Cue) -> Make it obvious The 2nd law (Craving) -> Make it attractive The 3rd law (Response) -> Make it easy The 4th law (Reward) -> Make it satisfying How to break a bad habit: Inversion of the 1st law (Cure) -> Make it invisible Inversion of the 2nd law (Craving) -> Make it unatrractive Inversion of the 3rd law (Response) -> Make it difficult Inversion of the 4th law (Reward) -> Make it unsatisfying 4. Make it attractive a. After I pull out my phone, I will do ten burpees (need). b. After I do ten burpees, I will check Facebook (want). 5. Humans are herd animals. We want to fit in, to bond with others, and to earn the respect and approval of our peers. Such inclinations are essential to our survival. For most of our evolutionary history, our ancestors lived in tribes. Becoming separated from the tribe - or worse, being cast out - was a death sentence. "The lone wolf dies, but the pack survives.".

生活的精彩，从来不在别处，而在你愿意用心感受的当下。

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